Emergency Management

Situation and Assumptions

Situation

A significant and recurring risk to the university is that of pandemic influenza. Influenza, also known as the flu, is a disease that infects the respiratory tract (nose, throat, and lungs). Influenza usually comes on suddenly and may include fever, headache, dry cough, sore throat, nasal congestion, and body aches.The seasonal flu, per the Center for Disease Control (CDC) kills an average of 24,000-62,000 U.S. citizens every year, sends some 410,000 to 740,000 to the hospital, and causes countless lost days of school and work. COVID-19, is a viral infection impacting millions of people worldwide. The number of cases and loss of life makes COVID-19 an impact on people's lives and must be included in viral disease response and preparation. 

Pandemic influenza occurs when a novel influenza virus appears that causes readily transmissible human illness against which most people lack immunity. During the 20th century, there were three such pandemics, the most notable of which was the 1918 Spanish influenza responsible for 20 million deaths throughout the world. A new strain of influenza, resulting from antigenic drift, is the form of pandemic disease most likely to affect the University of Houston-Victoria.

The impact of an actual pandemic cannot be predicted precisely, as it will depend on the virulence of the virus, how rapidly it spreads, the availability of vaccines and antivirals, and the effectiveness of medical and non-medical containment measures. When pandemic influenza occurs, many people will become ill and may die from the virus or complications. One can only become immune to infection after natural infection or after receiving an effective vaccination. In addition, animals may also be susceptible to the novel influenza virus and may carry, spread, or serve as an intermediate host of the virus. Experts predict that a highly virulent strain of pandemic influenza would disrupt all aspects of society and severely affect the economy.

CDC Webstie: How Is Pandemic Flu Different from Seasonal Flu?  CDC Flu Information

Assumptions

1. Seasonal influenza vaccination may or may not offer some level of protection against a novel pandemic influenza strain. Precautions and actions will include COVID-19.
2. It is highly unlikely that the most effective tool for mitigating a pandemic (a well-matched pandemic strain vaccine) will be available when a pandemic begins.
3. The time from a candidate vaccine strain to the production of the first vaccine dosage could be six months or more.
4. Once vaccine is available, it may take five months to produce an adequate supply of vaccine for the entire U.S. population (currently production capacity is approximately five million doses per week).
5. Two doses of vaccine administered 30 days apart may be required to develop immunity to a novel virus.
6. There is a limited supply of antiviral medications. Antiviral distribution to states will occur through the Strategic National Stockpile.
7. Non-medical containment measures will be the principal means of disease control until adequate supplies of vaccines and/or antiviral medications are available.
8. The novel influenza virus may initially be spread by animals to people in Texas, or by people entering the state and already contagious with the virus.
9. Multiple waves of illness are likely to occur - each wave may last six to eight weeks.
10. Pandemic influenza may severely affect even otherwise healthy individuals in all age groups,and will limit or degrade the response capabilities of all levels of government.
11. Persons who become ill shed virus and may transmit virus up to one day previous to the onset of illness. Persons who are ill may shed virus up to five days after onset of illness.
12. Systematic application of disease control measures can significantly reduce the disease transmission rates with accompanying reductions in the intensity and velocity of pandemic influenza.
13. Control and monitoring of pandemic influenza will involve many state and federal agencies,not just those associated with public health activities.
14. Some individuals may not believe the reality of the threat posed by a pandemic influenza incident, and may take actions counterproductive to the government process to quarantine, control and treat infected people with the disease. Health education will be needed on multiple levels and at multiple points to achieve full cooperation.
15. Over the course of the pandemic, up to 50 percent of the work force may be absent due to illness, care taking responsibilities, fear of contagion, loss of public transportation, or public health control measures.
16. The health impact of a pandemic event will be great. Up to 25-35% of persons may become ill in a major pandemic influenza wave. Rates of influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths may vary substantially. Estimates based on past pandemic influenza events indicate that 0.01-8% of the population may be hospitalized and 0.001-1% of the population may die.
17. There will likely be critical shortages of health care resources such as pharmaceuticals, vaccine(once developed), staffed hospital beds, health care workers, mechanical ventilators, morgue capacity, and temporary refrigerated holding sites.
18. Pandemic influenza will severely affect local and state economies, as well as intrastate,interstate, and international travel and commerce.
19. Pandemic influenza may result in long-term and costly emergency response operations.
20. Pandemic influenza may cause stress and/or emotional trauma.
21. Disseminating timely, consistent, and accurate information to public and private sector stakeholders, the media, and the general public is one of the most critical facets of pandemic influenza preparedness and response.